Shock in Porto

Villarreal goes down 5-1 in Porto after taking a 0-1 into the half time.
I will breakdown the details closer to the 2nd leg. Barring a miracle of epic proportions, FC Porto will feature in the final of the Europa League on 18th May in Dublin.

Submarine v Dragon

FC Porto – Villarreal CF Europa League semifinals

When & Where

1st leg – 9.05pm CET 28/4/2011, Estadio do Dragao, Oporto, Portugal.
2nd leg – 9.05pm CET 5/5/2011, Estadio El Madrigal, Vila-real, Spain.

Introduction

Of all the 4 semifinals in Champions league & Europa league this is the most intriguing match-up if not the most glamorous. These two teams practice distinct styles of football and are shoe-ins for next year’s Champions League. Porto is aiming for a treble, already secured the Portuguese League and reached the final of the Cup (Taça de Portugal).

Both teams have thumped their rivals in the quarter-finals. Porto dispatched Spartak Moscow 10-3 on aggregate and Villarreal thumping FC Twente 8-2 on aggregate. Most fans and experts believe that the winner of this tie is the favorite to win it all in Dublin on the 18th of May.
Let us dive into the details.

FC Porto

(disclosure: I have only watched one game of Porto live, Benfica-Porto which was a bit of an anti-climax and ugly. So most of this is based on reading the match reports from various sources across the net)

Porto under Andres Villas-Boas have been sensational. Dominated the Portuguese league right from the beginning and sewed up the title very early. They replicated the same form in Europa league, waltzing through the rounds to reach the semifinal.

Porto will line-up in a 4-3-3 with the trident of Hulk – Falcao – Varela at the top and the Guarin – Fernando – Moutinho in the middle. Falcao is usually the furthest up front and Fernando is the deepest midfielder. (see diagram). Gaurin and Moutinho drive forward in possession to support the forwards. Hulk usually plays a bit higher up the pitch just off of Falcao on the right side sort of like 2nd striker in a 4-4-2. Varela is more the wide forward poaching at the far post or dragging the central defender off his position.

The playing style is a bit on the physical side with Guarín and Hulk among the top 20 in fouls committed department. Defensively Rolando & Otamendi are the regulars, both very steady in front of Helton. Fucile is injured so Sapunaru and Perreira are fullbacks used most often. Fucile is injured an errata in the picture. (thx @cahiers_dusport)

Based on some of the stats in the knockout rounds of the Europa League, Porto doesn’t dominate possession, but they are quick on the counterattack and use the size of Hulk to overpower opposing fullbacks and central defenders. Hulk is the sort of player that makes oppositions alter their usual game plan to counter his unique abilities. Moutinho plays the key role of providing the service for both Falcao and Hulk. He has a good midrange shot and is capable of a few searing runs through the middle and powerful midrange drives that Diego Lopez needs to pay attention to. Fernando is the deep midfielder and he rarely ventures into the attacking third of the pitch. The forwards of Porto take a lot of shots in general, midrange as well as from the edge of the box.


In a nutshell, they are very vertical when they have possession and defend in numbers when not in possession. (If this all sounds like Real Madrid of Mourinho in the recent clasicos, then I am with you :-) )

Villarreal CF
(disclosure: I’m one of the biggest fans of Villarreal :) )

Villarreal had a tough time last year. Manuel Pellegrini was replaced by Ernesto Valverde and it didn’t work out. At one point Villarreal hit the bottom of the La Liga table. Around January 2010 Juan Carlos Garrido from Villarreal B took over from Valverde. After getting eliminated by Wolfsburg in 2010 Europa league, Villarreal concentrated on getting to the Europa League and finished 7th in Spanish Primera Liga. While they fell short, Mallorca’s expulsion from Europa league due to financial issues helped Villarreal to get into the Europa League.

After winning their group, they faced an impressive Napoli in the round of 32. After eking out a 0-0 in Naples and falling behind 0-1 at El Madrigal, they made a rousing comeback to win the game and the tie 2-1. They breezed past their next two opponents Bayer Leverkusen and FC Twente with four impressive wins.

Villarreal will line-up in their traditional 4-4-2 formation. It morphs into a narrow 4-2-2-2 in possession. Rossi & Nilmar lead the attack usually supported by Cazorla & Cani on the flanks and a double pivot of Borja Valero & Bruno. In the absence of the impressive captain Gonzalo Rodriguez due to a season ending injury, Marchena and Musacchio will pair in the central defence with Mario & Catala as the fullbacks. Villarreal game is centered on triangulation between Borja, Cani, Cazorla & the forwards. Both the flanks cut in naturally more often than not. Nilmar and Rossi switch constantly and Rossi at time drops back to get the ball.

How will the tie play out?

Both teams will try to impose their style of play. They might make minor adjustments but I don’t see any major tactical changes.

Villarreal Perspective

Most of the Villarreal attacks originate from Borja and Cazorla acts as the link to Rossi & Nilmar. Both Rossi and Nilmar move a lot without the ball to open up spaces for Borja and Cazorla to push forward and typically do a screen or two to liberate one of the forwards. Wakaso, a recent signing, relies on his pace to cover a lot of area. His main role will be to keep a check on Fucile/Perreira from pushing forward and double up to help Mario to defend Varela or Hulk when he switches to the left.

Bruno is the holding pivot for Villarreal does the ‘dirty work’ defending the likes of Gaurín and Hulk when he drops deeper. 2/3rd of the attacks will come through the middle if not more. Both Nilmar & Rossi have a great first touch and are not easily dispossessed. They have very good understanding among each other and combine very well with Borja & Cazorla.

Defensively stopping Hulk will be the highest priority. This is why the younger and taller Catala gets the nod at left back over the experienced Capdevila. Marchena and Musacchio have their tasks cut and will need to have very good understanding with the fullbacks to do a tag-team job on Hulk. In the middle they will try to starve Porto midfield of the possession by short passing.
One of the reasons why Villarreal have sort of sacrificed Cani is to add some defensive muscle in the midfield. This has worked well very well in the Europa League especially against crowded midfields teams have tried to use to counter the yellow submarine. Based on what I’ve seen of the goals scored by Falcao, there were a lot of occasions where the opposition was defending Hulk with two and sometimes 3 players leaving both Varela & Falcao with a lot of space and time. This partly explains why Falcao is the highest scorer in Europa League with 11 goals. (Hulk has 4 goals).

Porto Perspective

Porto on the other hand will be more direct in its approach where Moutinho would try to feed the ball to Hulk as much as possible. If they see Villarreal doubling up to counter Hulk, they’d try to switch flanks to create mismatches and let their forwards take high percentage shots in 1-on-1 situations. Porto will definitely look at morphing into a 5-man defence which has caused a lot of grief to the yellow submarine and a lot of teams have exploited it. Bitter provincial rivals Valencia did it most. Porto might test Diego Lopez with powerful midrange drives which both Hulk & Moutinho are capable of delivering. Diego has to be careful not to be too far off the line.

One glaring advantage for Porto is the size. Villarreal is undersized in most positions as a result Gaurin-Fernando-Moutinho will be physical to muscle away Borja & Cazorla (probably the smallest player in all of Europa League) possession away. Porto might also try to push the fullbacks forward to force Cazorla and Wakaso into defending and not give them the freedom to cut-inwards where they are most dangerous. I saw a bit of this in Villarreal X Barcelona 2 weeks ago when Dani Alves did this to Cazorla. (Sapunaru/Perreira are definitely not Alves)

Porto will try to take advantage of the size in set-pieces. They will try to force fouls in the vicinity of the 18yard box to have a go at the undersized wall and the same goes with corner kicks


Predictions

Objectively speaking>>

I think Villarreal will be happy to take home a scored draw. They will be content with a 0-0 or even a 1 goal loss too. Villarreal hasn’t lost yet at Madrigal in the Europa League.
Porto will look to score as many as possible but I don’t see them risk a whole lot. They will try to keep a clean sheet. They will be happy with 1 goal win and very happy with 2-0 or beyond.

Subjectively speaking>> :-) (aka like a Bollywood movie, after a lot of drama, Villarreal wins in the end)

While Porto has been very impressive in the Portuguese league and in general in the Europa league, they struggled against CSKA Moscow who line-up in guess what? 4-4-2. the key for Villarreal is to keep possession as much as possible in the 1st half. If they can score a goal in Dragao, it will open up the pitch for the yellow submarine to launch a few lethal counterattacks.
I trust Rossi or Nilmar to score a goal in Dragao and finish off the Dragon at El Madrigal.
#AUPASUBMARINO

If you want to argue with me or tell me that I suck, be my guest at @aupasubmarino

Hola Hola!

After almost a year, trying to get back into the old habit of writing. A few big stories to be written.

1. Why am I a fan of Villarreal? - I get this question at least once a week, if not more.

2. The trip to El Madrigal, Vila-real.

3. FC Porto - Villarreal CF : Europa League semi-final preview.

Not sure when I will be able to address all three of them but safe to say, I might start with #3 and then switch to #1 before coming back to #2. Having said that, not sure exactly when this well happen. But all I can say is: Stay tuned.

World Cup Preview #5 : Brazil

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‘Penta-campeon’ or 5-time champion and eternal favorite Brazil is one of the few teams that announced the squad of 23 players for the world cup with a month to go before the show-piece in South Africa kicks off on June 11th.
Coach Dunga announced a squad full of consistent performers, physically very strong players mirroring his own personality, very unlike the stereotype image of ‘jogo bonito’ (the beautiful game). Kaka to a large extent and Robinho/Nilmar to a lesser extent will add the creative element to an otherwise bland side. The exclusion of Ronaldinho surprised many, especially considering that he has been in good form for AC Milan all through the season. Exclusion of Adriano was largely expected, considering the train-wreck that he is. Lots of supporters in Brazil wanted him to name the young and very talented duo of Santos, Ganso and Neymar but Dunga resisted the temptation and instead went for a set of players who fit his mould and rewarded those who have consistently performed over the past few years.

Playing style
Caveat: This is not your stereotype Brazilian outfit. Brazil will employ a classic 4-4-2 switching to a 4-3-1-2 every now and then. At the top, a big centre-forward Luis Fabiano (Sevilla) or Grafite (Wolfsburg) will be supported by Robinho who will be given a free role just behind the centre-forward. Kaka will play in the most advanced position in the midfield and will make his trademark powerful runs to the edge of the box with ample options to pass or shoot. One wonders if he has fully recovered from the long injury lay-off at his club Real Madrid but apart from that, Brazil’s hopes largely rest on the shoulders of Kaka. And opposition teams are well aware of this fact.

At the back Lucio and Juan will start in central defence with Bastos and Maicon as the left and right fullbacks. It is a pity that Dani Alves the dynamic right back of Barcelona will be forced to start on the bench. Pep Guardiola at Barcelona has tried Dani Alves on the right side of the midfield in a few games, and the results were mixed. I don’t think Dunga will be that adventurous but he might consider the option in case of suspensions or injuries. The midfield will include the hardworking Ramires, Kaka, Gilberto and either Felipe Melo or Elano.
The main problem for Brazil is the over-dependence on Kaka to do all creative duties and a lot depends on Robinho to attract the fullbacks and the central defenders of the opposition to make way for Kaka to making his runs in the final third of the pitch. Opposition teams will try to hurry Kaka into passing the ball and reduce his effectiveness.
Secondly Brazil is in the toughest group of the world cup alongside a strong Portugal and a very dangerous Cote d’Ivoire, and the complete unknown that is North Korea. I see this group won’t be decided until the last group match, where Brazil takes on Portugal. And to top that whoever comes 2nd in Group G will most likely get to face Spain in the 2nd round.
Finally Brazil don’t have cover for Kaka on the bench. They have to play different style if Kaka has an off day or he cannot play due to injuries. The methodical Dunga will have a plan B but the question is, will it work?

Prediction
Brazil is in the toughest group in the tough lower half of the draw. I won’t be surprised if the fail to advance from Group G, however it is unthinkable.
I believe Brazil could go all the way to the finals if they don’t meet Spain in Round 2. If they end up running to Spain in the 2nd round, I see about 30% chances that they advance.

Prediction (avoiding Spain): Final
Prediction (Spain in 2nd round): 2nd round elimination
Team Bus Slogan: Lotado! O Brasil inteiro está aqui dentro! (The whole of Brazil is in here!)
Rating: 7/10. Imaginative.

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Aupa Villareal

Villareal resumed its 2nd foray into Europe's elite with a 1-0 win over Celtic. Classic Villareal, control the ball, keep a clean sheet and score a goal or two. Along with Manchester United, Villareal will advance from this group in all probability.
Super Villareal :) Super Submarino

Zenit Glory

Zenit St. Petersburgh lift the UEFA Cup for the first time in their history. Deservedly so against a Rangers team who were playing for the penalties from minute 0.

Its a great run by the Rangers team scoring just 5 goals in 8 games! to progress to the final. Zenit had more enterprise and in the end they won it deservedly. Eventhough the first goal took all of 70 minutes to come, it was inevitable the way Rangers approached this game. As it is the case often, teams that come to defend cant switch gears after they get behind. And usually they stay behind till the end.

Congratulations Zenit! Well deserved win after beating some tough teams along the way including Bayern Munich, Villareal and Bayer Leverkusen among others.

That leaves us with the final of Champions League next week in Moscow between Chelsea and Manchester United.

La Liga is done and dusted. Relagation drama set to reign the last gameday of the season this weekend.

Premier League concluded.

Serie A is still alive thanks to the big-egohead Materazzi for refusing to let more accomplished players take the penalty. Now they travel to play against Parma who are fighting for their Serie A lives. Interesting stuff.

Gotta go home. Tiring day.
Aupa Submarino

Celebrating 2nd place

Villareal is celebrating. Big time.

If you see their celebrations spilling over a few days one might wonder if they had won a big cup or league championship. No they did not win the spanish league. They came a distant but comfortable 2nd. Except for a couple of weeks they were never even discussed as serious contenders

Truth be told, they never considered themselves as title contenders. Thanks to the inability of the big clubs like Real Madrid and Barçelona to string together a few wins in the months of March and April meant that little Villareal found themselves in the midst of a title challenge. Can Villareal really pull it off. They had a couple of chances to close the gap with Madrid but they failed to capitalize. Call it nerves, lack of experience, out of depth, anything.

I think it doesnt matter.

Little Villareal from Vila-real notorious for
-having just one decent hotel,
-a small stadium that holds about 20,000 in a city (i am being generous) with a population of about 45,000
-languishing in the lower levels of spanish regional leagues not so long ago ( about 9 yrs ago)
is 2nd in arguably the worlds best league top-to-bottom.


With 1 game to go:
Villareal has 74 points.
Real Madrid has 82.
Barçelona has 64.

If they win their last game Villareal will end the season on 77 points.
To put it in perspective, 77 points would have won La Liga in 6 of the last 10 years!!!

I think thats an incredible achievement for a small club. And they achieved it playing very attractive football for the most part. They do play on the counter a lot of times but thats not for the lack of skill or the ability to play a possession football ala Barçelona, they adapt to the opponent.

One of the keys to their success is playing a consistent style of football home and away. They have the 2nd best away record in La Liga (on Madrid has a slightly better record). Strong midfield play with Senna, Pires and Cazorla support potent but undervalues strikers like Nihat and Rossi (yep! he used to be a Man Utd player 2 seasons ago.). An all round good team without any superstar but not many passengers either. And a great coach in "El Profesor' Manuel Pellegrini.

A few years ago this team was over-reliant on a bunch of Argentinians led by the moody genius Juan Roman Riquelme. They had that amazing run in Champions League when they lost by a whisker to Arsenal (Riquelme missed a penalty that would have sent that tie to overtime). He followed it up with the typical moody and unprofessional behavior. Pellegrini had built the entire game of Villareal around Riquelme. Results dried up. Riquelme got worse. And the midway through last season the professor had enough. He decided he wont use Riquelme anymore. Shock waves through Spain...(errr.. not true... i made that up :)). Everyone thought that thats the end of Villareal's fairy tale couple of season. They were teetering towards the mid-table mediocrity.

They had signed Pires at the beginning of last season but he got injured pre-season. He came back in the later parts of the season. He helped beat Barçelona in his first full game after the long injury layoff. It was written off as a one-off win then. Then they win 9 games in a row to close the season in 5th!.

The message to Spain and Riquelme in particular was clear. Villareal has moved on. The clawed back from adversity. I am not exaggerating but its really difficult for small clubs to come back from such a talismanic loss and getting over the hangover of a fairytale season. There are a lot of examples where small teams have had their moment in the sun and faded into oblivion. Villareal is one of the few clubs that rewrote that script.

This season they used a lot of players from their youth system. They made 15 mill Euro by selling Diego Forlan (who they got for almost free from Man Utd) to Atletico Madrid.
Matías Fernandez is an exciting talent.

It helps that they are managed nicely and their owner is dedicated to the long term future of the club. One of the little known facts is that they have one of the better youth systems in Spain and a fantastic training facility.

Cheers to Villareal! Aupa Submarino! Vaya Vaya!

Looking forward to next season, things will get much tougher for the Yellow Submarine. People expect more. Opponents will try to break them down more. They are in the Champions League group phase where they will face atleast 2 clubs with a much higher pedigree and longer history than them. But I think they can succeed. If they can keep their coach they is a very good chance of repeating the success of this season.

One of these days I would like to go watch a game in El Madrigal. Wearing the Yellow Jersey!Submarino Amarillo! :) :)

As Nihat put it after clinching the 2nd spot:
2nd in La Liga is as good as winning the championship for Villareal.

Whle i dont normally subscribe to that filosofy, I will give it Villareal...only this year. Next year they have to aim for the 'real' championship.

Favorites

League : La Liga - they are a bit up and down this year but still top to bottom they are still a very good league, Ronaldinho's mess notwithstanding.

Team(s) : Villareal CF. El submarino Amarillo. The Yellow Submarine. Aupa! will finish #2 in the league which means direct entry to the UEFA Champions League group stage next year. Losses at key moments meant they couldnt mount a challenge to Real Madrid who had their share of ups and downs through the season. Players to watch out : Matías Fernandez - Matígol, ' el turco' Nihat.

Chivas Guadalajara. El rebaño sagrado. the best team in México which hires only Mexican players born on Mexican soil. In the play-offs of the Mexican League this season. Arriba Las Chivas!

And of late Getafe! - the reason - see the next post :)

Countries : India (i hope to see them play in a World Cup in my lifetime), Argentina (Maradona is God!), México, and sometimes Spain, Italy.

Players : too many to list.

Style : Good football in general. Lots of ball movement and players moving well without the ball. Pace is good but just running up and down gets boring. Man marking like Greece in Euro 2004 in any way shape or form is a no-no.

Radio or TV? I love radio. Especially live narration in Spanish :). From Argentina to Mexico to Spain. Awesome!