Shock in Porto

Villarreal goes down 5-1 in Porto after taking a 0-1 into the half time.
I will breakdown the details closer to the 2nd leg. Barring a miracle of epic proportions, FC Porto will feature in the final of the Europa League on 18th May in Dublin.

Submarine v Dragon

FC Porto – Villarreal CF Europa League semifinals

When & Where

1st leg – 9.05pm CET 28/4/2011, Estadio do Dragao, Oporto, Portugal.
2nd leg – 9.05pm CET 5/5/2011, Estadio El Madrigal, Vila-real, Spain.

Introduction

Of all the 4 semifinals in Champions league & Europa league this is the most intriguing match-up if not the most glamorous. These two teams practice distinct styles of football and are shoe-ins for next year’s Champions League. Porto is aiming for a treble, already secured the Portuguese League and reached the final of the Cup (Taça de Portugal).

Both teams have thumped their rivals in the quarter-finals. Porto dispatched Spartak Moscow 10-3 on aggregate and Villarreal thumping FC Twente 8-2 on aggregate. Most fans and experts believe that the winner of this tie is the favorite to win it all in Dublin on the 18th of May.
Let us dive into the details.

FC Porto

(disclosure: I have only watched one game of Porto live, Benfica-Porto which was a bit of an anti-climax and ugly. So most of this is based on reading the match reports from various sources across the net)

Porto under Andres Villas-Boas have been sensational. Dominated the Portuguese league right from the beginning and sewed up the title very early. They replicated the same form in Europa league, waltzing through the rounds to reach the semifinal.

Porto will line-up in a 4-3-3 with the trident of Hulk – Falcao – Varela at the top and the Guarin – Fernando – Moutinho in the middle. Falcao is usually the furthest up front and Fernando is the deepest midfielder. (see diagram). Gaurin and Moutinho drive forward in possession to support the forwards. Hulk usually plays a bit higher up the pitch just off of Falcao on the right side sort of like 2nd striker in a 4-4-2. Varela is more the wide forward poaching at the far post or dragging the central defender off his position.

The playing style is a bit on the physical side with Guarín and Hulk among the top 20 in fouls committed department. Defensively Rolando & Otamendi are the regulars, both very steady in front of Helton. Fucile is injured so Sapunaru and Perreira are fullbacks used most often. Fucile is injured an errata in the picture. (thx @cahiers_dusport)

Based on some of the stats in the knockout rounds of the Europa League, Porto doesn’t dominate possession, but they are quick on the counterattack and use the size of Hulk to overpower opposing fullbacks and central defenders. Hulk is the sort of player that makes oppositions alter their usual game plan to counter his unique abilities. Moutinho plays the key role of providing the service for both Falcao and Hulk. He has a good midrange shot and is capable of a few searing runs through the middle and powerful midrange drives that Diego Lopez needs to pay attention to. Fernando is the deep midfielder and he rarely ventures into the attacking third of the pitch. The forwards of Porto take a lot of shots in general, midrange as well as from the edge of the box.


In a nutshell, they are very vertical when they have possession and defend in numbers when not in possession. (If this all sounds like Real Madrid of Mourinho in the recent clasicos, then I am with you :-) )

Villarreal CF
(disclosure: I’m one of the biggest fans of Villarreal :) )

Villarreal had a tough time last year. Manuel Pellegrini was replaced by Ernesto Valverde and it didn’t work out. At one point Villarreal hit the bottom of the La Liga table. Around January 2010 Juan Carlos Garrido from Villarreal B took over from Valverde. After getting eliminated by Wolfsburg in 2010 Europa league, Villarreal concentrated on getting to the Europa League and finished 7th in Spanish Primera Liga. While they fell short, Mallorca’s expulsion from Europa league due to financial issues helped Villarreal to get into the Europa League.

After winning their group, they faced an impressive Napoli in the round of 32. After eking out a 0-0 in Naples and falling behind 0-1 at El Madrigal, they made a rousing comeback to win the game and the tie 2-1. They breezed past their next two opponents Bayer Leverkusen and FC Twente with four impressive wins.

Villarreal will line-up in their traditional 4-4-2 formation. It morphs into a narrow 4-2-2-2 in possession. Rossi & Nilmar lead the attack usually supported by Cazorla & Cani on the flanks and a double pivot of Borja Valero & Bruno. In the absence of the impressive captain Gonzalo Rodriguez due to a season ending injury, Marchena and Musacchio will pair in the central defence with Mario & Catala as the fullbacks. Villarreal game is centered on triangulation between Borja, Cani, Cazorla & the forwards. Both the flanks cut in naturally more often than not. Nilmar and Rossi switch constantly and Rossi at time drops back to get the ball.

How will the tie play out?

Both teams will try to impose their style of play. They might make minor adjustments but I don’t see any major tactical changes.

Villarreal Perspective

Most of the Villarreal attacks originate from Borja and Cazorla acts as the link to Rossi & Nilmar. Both Rossi and Nilmar move a lot without the ball to open up spaces for Borja and Cazorla to push forward and typically do a screen or two to liberate one of the forwards. Wakaso, a recent signing, relies on his pace to cover a lot of area. His main role will be to keep a check on Fucile/Perreira from pushing forward and double up to help Mario to defend Varela or Hulk when he switches to the left.

Bruno is the holding pivot for Villarreal does the ‘dirty work’ defending the likes of Gaurín and Hulk when he drops deeper. 2/3rd of the attacks will come through the middle if not more. Both Nilmar & Rossi have a great first touch and are not easily dispossessed. They have very good understanding among each other and combine very well with Borja & Cazorla.

Defensively stopping Hulk will be the highest priority. This is why the younger and taller Catala gets the nod at left back over the experienced Capdevila. Marchena and Musacchio have their tasks cut and will need to have very good understanding with the fullbacks to do a tag-team job on Hulk. In the middle they will try to starve Porto midfield of the possession by short passing.
One of the reasons why Villarreal have sort of sacrificed Cani is to add some defensive muscle in the midfield. This has worked well very well in the Europa League especially against crowded midfields teams have tried to use to counter the yellow submarine. Based on what I’ve seen of the goals scored by Falcao, there were a lot of occasions where the opposition was defending Hulk with two and sometimes 3 players leaving both Varela & Falcao with a lot of space and time. This partly explains why Falcao is the highest scorer in Europa League with 11 goals. (Hulk has 4 goals).

Porto Perspective

Porto on the other hand will be more direct in its approach where Moutinho would try to feed the ball to Hulk as much as possible. If they see Villarreal doubling up to counter Hulk, they’d try to switch flanks to create mismatches and let their forwards take high percentage shots in 1-on-1 situations. Porto will definitely look at morphing into a 5-man defence which has caused a lot of grief to the yellow submarine and a lot of teams have exploited it. Bitter provincial rivals Valencia did it most. Porto might test Diego Lopez with powerful midrange drives which both Hulk & Moutinho are capable of delivering. Diego has to be careful not to be too far off the line.

One glaring advantage for Porto is the size. Villarreal is undersized in most positions as a result Gaurin-Fernando-Moutinho will be physical to muscle away Borja & Cazorla (probably the smallest player in all of Europa League) possession away. Porto might also try to push the fullbacks forward to force Cazorla and Wakaso into defending and not give them the freedom to cut-inwards where they are most dangerous. I saw a bit of this in Villarreal X Barcelona 2 weeks ago when Dani Alves did this to Cazorla. (Sapunaru/Perreira are definitely not Alves)

Porto will try to take advantage of the size in set-pieces. They will try to force fouls in the vicinity of the 18yard box to have a go at the undersized wall and the same goes with corner kicks


Predictions

Objectively speaking>>

I think Villarreal will be happy to take home a scored draw. They will be content with a 0-0 or even a 1 goal loss too. Villarreal hasn’t lost yet at Madrigal in the Europa League.
Porto will look to score as many as possible but I don’t see them risk a whole lot. They will try to keep a clean sheet. They will be happy with 1 goal win and very happy with 2-0 or beyond.

Subjectively speaking>> :-) (aka like a Bollywood movie, after a lot of drama, Villarreal wins in the end)

While Porto has been very impressive in the Portuguese league and in general in the Europa league, they struggled against CSKA Moscow who line-up in guess what? 4-4-2. the key for Villarreal is to keep possession as much as possible in the 1st half. If they can score a goal in Dragao, it will open up the pitch for the yellow submarine to launch a few lethal counterattacks.
I trust Rossi or Nilmar to score a goal in Dragao and finish off the Dragon at El Madrigal.
#AUPASUBMARINO

If you want to argue with me or tell me that I suck, be my guest at @aupasubmarino

Aupa España

Finally Spain regains something close to the midas touch. And dominate Germany. 1-0 scoreline doesnt reflect the control and dominance of Spain in the game.

On to the final now. here is quick analysis.

Xabi-Busi X De Jong-Van Bommel ; Edge ESP
Xavi-Iniesta-Pedro X Sneijder-Kuyt-Robben : Edge ESP
Villa X Van Persie : are you kidding?


Having said that, football is funny and thats why they play the games. Bring on the final.
¡¡¡Aupa España!!!

Champions League Final Inter Milan X Bayern Munich : Preview Part #2

Champions League final Part# 1

Bayern’s journey to the final

Bayern Munich had trouble getting out of their group, just like Inter. They eliminated Juventus in the last group match to progress to the round of 16. They were lucky to eliminate Fiorentina through a clear offside goal. First leg ended 2-1 in Munich and the 2nd leg ended 3-2 in Florence. They faced Manchester United in the Quarter-final. Bayern were outplayed for most part of the first leg yet they took a slender lead of 2-1 to Manchester through and injury time goal. The 2nd leg seemed headed towards a blowout with United scoring 3 first half goals. A wonder strike from Robben in the 2nd half broke the hearts of the Old Trafford faithful.
Bayern dispatched another surprise of the tournament Olympique Lyon with ease winning both legs.

Keys to Bayern

Ribery on the left wing and Robben on the right wing have been the keys to success of the Bavarians. The tireless and opportunistic Croat striker Ivica Olic is the unsung hero of this team. There is nothing flashy in his approach but very effective. The backline is very dodgy yet they have been able to overcome the defects with grit and the flashes of brilliance on their wings. Louis Van Gaal had a tough time early in the season and was about to be fired. But the win in Turin over Juventus started the turnaround and now they are gunning for the treble having already bagged the German Cup and the Bundesliga title.

Keys to the final

There are no big surprises here. Bayern will miss Ribery and Inter will miss Motta through suspension. Bayern will use Robben on the right wing to draw the defenders and open space for Ivica Olic, Muller in the middle. Inter will try to shield out Robben to cut the supply to the Bayern strikers.
Inter will start in their 4-3-3 (or 4-3-2-1) formation with Etoo-Milito-Pandev trident in front supported by Cambiasso, Stankovic and Sneijder playing the linking with strikers and playing between the lines. Bayern has to come up with a good scheme to stop these guys. The central defenders of Bayern, De Michelis and Van Buyten are not very mobile. Philip Lahm, Scheinsteiger, Altintop will have to help out in defence to keep out the dangerous forwards of Inter. I believe this aspect will decide the game.

Prediction

Inter will win 3-1, provided they start with a positive and attacking line-up. I cannot see the Bayern defence holding up to the threat of Inter forwards. However if they start with a more defensive lineup, with a holding midfielder in place of Goran Pandev, they will play into the hands of Bayern and I can see this go into extra-time.

A por ellos!!! oooooée

E S P A Ñ A

Vamos Vamos!!!

It all boils down to this. Spain X Germany. España X Alemania! the final.
In less than 24 hours, Spain will step on the field to end a generation of misery, ridicule, 'curse' (maldición) and finally do some justification to the vast talent they had in the past and the present.

44 years since their only Championship.
24 years since the last time they were in a Final.

There is a lot of pressure on this team to wipeout decades of disappointment of a nation who always were up with the best in the world as far as talent players and technical ability is concerned. But too often they cant rise in adversity. They seem to lose against opponents who seemed mentally tougher than themselves. Or too often they get ridden with internal strife in the squad.

Things have been refreshingly different this time around in the Spanish camp. Almost none of the players who featured in those losses in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Players like Torres and Fabregas exceling outside of Spain helped in giving an added dimension to the team. Aragones stuck to his guns by not including popular players who he didnt believe as a part of his setup in Raul and Joaquin.

After a tentative start (eventhough masked by the scoreline 4-1) against Russia, they faced a tough opponent in Sweden. Villa won it for Spain on a last gasp solo run in added time. the largely 2nd team came from behind to beat Greece 2-1 to complete a perfect group record.

And their reward for sweeping group D is a QF clash with dreaded, loathed Italy - the defending world champions. Spain always believed that they play better football than the Italians who are supposed to win through their sheer will to win, physical play and gamesmanship and cheeky tactics. The Italians have a 4 World Cups and a Euro to Spains only Euro.

Italy missing Pirlo, seemed to play for penalties from the get go. They stifled the more enterprising Spanish for all of 120 minutes. Penalties. Spain for once took their penalties with aplomb and riding on the 2 saves of Iker Casillas exorcised 2 ghosts in 1 match.
1. The Italians - The Spainish havent gotten past the Italian in 88 years.
2. QF curse - The Spanish have taken on the dubious tag of QF Bottlers as they havent gotten past that stage in a major cup for the past 20 odd years.

Semifinal against a resurgent Russian team who had beaten the dutch at their own game in a scintillating display of attacking and running football in the QF. Spain never worried about Russian resurgence despite all the hype and the gungho statements that the Russian's have come of age in the span of a few matches. Sadly for the Russians all those who believed in the hype didnt include the Spanish.
The slick spanish passing ran the Russians ragged for the better part of an hour before scoring the 1st and then the 2nd and then the 3rd to put them out of the tourney. In the process they lost David Villa for the final. A big loss. One that cant be filled without changing their tactics. Spain reverted to a 4-5-1 system and will employ them same against the Germans in the final today.

This is it. Spain are ready to end the wait of 44 years today.

There is no point in talking formations and tactics. Spain is playing against itself, its history and all the disappointment of its predecessors. To be fair, this bunch has already broken through the glass ceilings which seemed insurmountable in the past.
As the old saying goes :: Finals are to be won. And none remembers who finished 2nd.

Aupa España
Vamos a ganar!