Submarine v Dragon

FC Porto – Villarreal CF Europa League semifinals

When & Where

1st leg – 9.05pm CET 28/4/2011, Estadio do Dragao, Oporto, Portugal.
2nd leg – 9.05pm CET 5/5/2011, Estadio El Madrigal, Vila-real, Spain.

Introduction

Of all the 4 semifinals in Champions league & Europa league this is the most intriguing match-up if not the most glamorous. These two teams practice distinct styles of football and are shoe-ins for next year’s Champions League. Porto is aiming for a treble, already secured the Portuguese League and reached the final of the Cup (Taça de Portugal).

Both teams have thumped their rivals in the quarter-finals. Porto dispatched Spartak Moscow 10-3 on aggregate and Villarreal thumping FC Twente 8-2 on aggregate. Most fans and experts believe that the winner of this tie is the favorite to win it all in Dublin on the 18th of May.
Let us dive into the details.

FC Porto

(disclosure: I have only watched one game of Porto live, Benfica-Porto which was a bit of an anti-climax and ugly. So most of this is based on reading the match reports from various sources across the net)

Porto under Andres Villas-Boas have been sensational. Dominated the Portuguese league right from the beginning and sewed up the title very early. They replicated the same form in Europa league, waltzing through the rounds to reach the semifinal.

Porto will line-up in a 4-3-3 with the trident of Hulk – Falcao – Varela at the top and the Guarin – Fernando – Moutinho in the middle. Falcao is usually the furthest up front and Fernando is the deepest midfielder. (see diagram). Gaurin and Moutinho drive forward in possession to support the forwards. Hulk usually plays a bit higher up the pitch just off of Falcao on the right side sort of like 2nd striker in a 4-4-2. Varela is more the wide forward poaching at the far post or dragging the central defender off his position.

The playing style is a bit on the physical side with Guarín and Hulk among the top 20 in fouls committed department. Defensively Rolando & Otamendi are the regulars, both very steady in front of Helton. Fucile is injured so Sapunaru and Perreira are fullbacks used most often. Fucile is injured an errata in the picture. (thx @cahiers_dusport)

Based on some of the stats in the knockout rounds of the Europa League, Porto doesn’t dominate possession, but they are quick on the counterattack and use the size of Hulk to overpower opposing fullbacks and central defenders. Hulk is the sort of player that makes oppositions alter their usual game plan to counter his unique abilities. Moutinho plays the key role of providing the service for both Falcao and Hulk. He has a good midrange shot and is capable of a few searing runs through the middle and powerful midrange drives that Diego Lopez needs to pay attention to. Fernando is the deep midfielder and he rarely ventures into the attacking third of the pitch. The forwards of Porto take a lot of shots in general, midrange as well as from the edge of the box.


In a nutshell, they are very vertical when they have possession and defend in numbers when not in possession. (If this all sounds like Real Madrid of Mourinho in the recent clasicos, then I am with you :-) )

Villarreal CF
(disclosure: I’m one of the biggest fans of Villarreal :) )

Villarreal had a tough time last year. Manuel Pellegrini was replaced by Ernesto Valverde and it didn’t work out. At one point Villarreal hit the bottom of the La Liga table. Around January 2010 Juan Carlos Garrido from Villarreal B took over from Valverde. After getting eliminated by Wolfsburg in 2010 Europa league, Villarreal concentrated on getting to the Europa League and finished 7th in Spanish Primera Liga. While they fell short, Mallorca’s expulsion from Europa league due to financial issues helped Villarreal to get into the Europa League.

After winning their group, they faced an impressive Napoli in the round of 32. After eking out a 0-0 in Naples and falling behind 0-1 at El Madrigal, they made a rousing comeback to win the game and the tie 2-1. They breezed past their next two opponents Bayer Leverkusen and FC Twente with four impressive wins.

Villarreal will line-up in their traditional 4-4-2 formation. It morphs into a narrow 4-2-2-2 in possession. Rossi & Nilmar lead the attack usually supported by Cazorla & Cani on the flanks and a double pivot of Borja Valero & Bruno. In the absence of the impressive captain Gonzalo Rodriguez due to a season ending injury, Marchena and Musacchio will pair in the central defence with Mario & Catala as the fullbacks. Villarreal game is centered on triangulation between Borja, Cani, Cazorla & the forwards. Both the flanks cut in naturally more often than not. Nilmar and Rossi switch constantly and Rossi at time drops back to get the ball.

How will the tie play out?

Both teams will try to impose their style of play. They might make minor adjustments but I don’t see any major tactical changes.

Villarreal Perspective

Most of the Villarreal attacks originate from Borja and Cazorla acts as the link to Rossi & Nilmar. Both Rossi and Nilmar move a lot without the ball to open up spaces for Borja and Cazorla to push forward and typically do a screen or two to liberate one of the forwards. Wakaso, a recent signing, relies on his pace to cover a lot of area. His main role will be to keep a check on Fucile/Perreira from pushing forward and double up to help Mario to defend Varela or Hulk when he switches to the left.

Bruno is the holding pivot for Villarreal does the ‘dirty work’ defending the likes of Gaurín and Hulk when he drops deeper. 2/3rd of the attacks will come through the middle if not more. Both Nilmar & Rossi have a great first touch and are not easily dispossessed. They have very good understanding among each other and combine very well with Borja & Cazorla.

Defensively stopping Hulk will be the highest priority. This is why the younger and taller Catala gets the nod at left back over the experienced Capdevila. Marchena and Musacchio have their tasks cut and will need to have very good understanding with the fullbacks to do a tag-team job on Hulk. In the middle they will try to starve Porto midfield of the possession by short passing.
One of the reasons why Villarreal have sort of sacrificed Cani is to add some defensive muscle in the midfield. This has worked well very well in the Europa League especially against crowded midfields teams have tried to use to counter the yellow submarine. Based on what I’ve seen of the goals scored by Falcao, there were a lot of occasions where the opposition was defending Hulk with two and sometimes 3 players leaving both Varela & Falcao with a lot of space and time. This partly explains why Falcao is the highest scorer in Europa League with 11 goals. (Hulk has 4 goals).

Porto Perspective

Porto on the other hand will be more direct in its approach where Moutinho would try to feed the ball to Hulk as much as possible. If they see Villarreal doubling up to counter Hulk, they’d try to switch flanks to create mismatches and let their forwards take high percentage shots in 1-on-1 situations. Porto will definitely look at morphing into a 5-man defence which has caused a lot of grief to the yellow submarine and a lot of teams have exploited it. Bitter provincial rivals Valencia did it most. Porto might test Diego Lopez with powerful midrange drives which both Hulk & Moutinho are capable of delivering. Diego has to be careful not to be too far off the line.

One glaring advantage for Porto is the size. Villarreal is undersized in most positions as a result Gaurin-Fernando-Moutinho will be physical to muscle away Borja & Cazorla (probably the smallest player in all of Europa League) possession away. Porto might also try to push the fullbacks forward to force Cazorla and Wakaso into defending and not give them the freedom to cut-inwards where they are most dangerous. I saw a bit of this in Villarreal X Barcelona 2 weeks ago when Dani Alves did this to Cazorla. (Sapunaru/Perreira are definitely not Alves)

Porto will try to take advantage of the size in set-pieces. They will try to force fouls in the vicinity of the 18yard box to have a go at the undersized wall and the same goes with corner kicks


Predictions

Objectively speaking>>

I think Villarreal will be happy to take home a scored draw. They will be content with a 0-0 or even a 1 goal loss too. Villarreal hasn’t lost yet at Madrigal in the Europa League.
Porto will look to score as many as possible but I don’t see them risk a whole lot. They will try to keep a clean sheet. They will be happy with 1 goal win and very happy with 2-0 or beyond.

Subjectively speaking>> :-) (aka like a Bollywood movie, after a lot of drama, Villarreal wins in the end)

While Porto has been very impressive in the Portuguese league and in general in the Europa league, they struggled against CSKA Moscow who line-up in guess what? 4-4-2. the key for Villarreal is to keep possession as much as possible in the 1st half. If they can score a goal in Dragao, it will open up the pitch for the yellow submarine to launch a few lethal counterattacks.
I trust Rossi or Nilmar to score a goal in Dragao and finish off the Dragon at El Madrigal.
#AUPASUBMARINO

If you want to argue with me or tell me that I suck, be my guest at @aupasubmarino

The World Cup Final - España Rules

Hostía! Somos Campeones!
(we are the freakin Champions)

V I V A E S P A Ñ A

The Opponent :
Dutch had a plan. Kick, kick, give the ball to Robben and pray, karate kick and then kick again(not the ball, but the Spaniards). It threw Spain off for the most part but they kept enough composure to win it in the end. It is a disgrace tha De Jong&Van Bommel wernt sent off in 120 minutes of UFC football! Thx to ref & ...Dutch tactics now Spain proved they can overcome scumbag tactics and still win. ¡Aupa España!

‎9 yellow cards 1 red for the Dutch, 5 yellow cards for the Spanish. To put it in perspective, Spain had 3 yellow cards in total upto the semifinals. Clearly only one team came to play football. I am super glad football won and Cynical tactics lost.

The drama :

Football gods were expectant to see these two long suffering nations to play a great game. And then they cringed at every crunching tackle, hissed at every missed goal, uffed at the cynicism and petulance. They seemed resigned to the travesty of penalties when 'Iniestaaazo' happened. And they celebrated. Football has w...on. Cynicism was beaten even if it meant employing a little dose of cynicism was needed it beat it.

Special Acknowledgements :

and a big thanks to Switzerland again, for beating Spain in the opening game and everyone (except Chile) tried to copy the Swiss strategy forgetting the amount of luck the Swiss had. Vielen Dank.

and a note to Maradona. Thanks for explaining that the goal posts are at the ends of the pitch and not on the sides. May be if you had used all that time to plan the ARG games instead of winding up others..

much more to come..

Xavi, is class.

In a fascinating interview with El País, Xavi: "What did people think? That we were going to win every game 3-0? I can't believe what I am hearing sometimes. Do you not realize how hard it is? Teams aren't stupid; we're European champions. They all pressure us like wolves. There isn't a single meter, not a second on the pitch. We are passing faster and faster and faster. We're playing bloody brilliantly. Then there's the pitch and the ball -- I have spent the World Cup thinking, 'That's a good pass,' only to see the ball disappear off in a different direction."

Aupa España

Finally Spain regains something close to the midas touch. And dominate Germany. 1-0 scoreline doesnt reflect the control and dominance of Spain in the game.

On to the final now. here is quick analysis.

Xabi-Busi X De Jong-Van Bommel ; Edge ESP
Xavi-Iniesta-Pedro X Sneijder-Kuyt-Robben : Edge ESP
Villa X Van Persie : are you kidding?


Having said that, football is funny and thats why they play the games. Bring on the final.
¡¡¡Aupa España!!!

World Cup Preview #5 : Brazil

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México
Argentina
England
Spain

‘Penta-campeon’ or 5-time champion and eternal favorite Brazil is one of the few teams that announced the squad of 23 players for the world cup with a month to go before the show-piece in South Africa kicks off on June 11th.
Coach Dunga announced a squad full of consistent performers, physically very strong players mirroring his own personality, very unlike the stereotype image of ‘jogo bonito’ (the beautiful game). Kaka to a large extent and Robinho/Nilmar to a lesser extent will add the creative element to an otherwise bland side. The exclusion of Ronaldinho surprised many, especially considering that he has been in good form for AC Milan all through the season. Exclusion of Adriano was largely expected, considering the train-wreck that he is. Lots of supporters in Brazil wanted him to name the young and very talented duo of Santos, Ganso and Neymar but Dunga resisted the temptation and instead went for a set of players who fit his mould and rewarded those who have consistently performed over the past few years.

Playing style
Caveat: This is not your stereotype Brazilian outfit. Brazil will employ a classic 4-4-2 switching to a 4-3-1-2 every now and then. At the top, a big centre-forward Luis Fabiano (Sevilla) or Grafite (Wolfsburg) will be supported by Robinho who will be given a free role just behind the centre-forward. Kaka will play in the most advanced position in the midfield and will make his trademark powerful runs to the edge of the box with ample options to pass or shoot. One wonders if he has fully recovered from the long injury lay-off at his club Real Madrid but apart from that, Brazil’s hopes largely rest on the shoulders of Kaka. And opposition teams are well aware of this fact.

At the back Lucio and Juan will start in central defence with Bastos and Maicon as the left and right fullbacks. It is a pity that Dani Alves the dynamic right back of Barcelona will be forced to start on the bench. Pep Guardiola at Barcelona has tried Dani Alves on the right side of the midfield in a few games, and the results were mixed. I don’t think Dunga will be that adventurous but he might consider the option in case of suspensions or injuries. The midfield will include the hardworking Ramires, Kaka, Gilberto and either Felipe Melo or Elano.
The main problem for Brazil is the over-dependence on Kaka to do all creative duties and a lot depends on Robinho to attract the fullbacks and the central defenders of the opposition to make way for Kaka to making his runs in the final third of the pitch. Opposition teams will try to hurry Kaka into passing the ball and reduce his effectiveness.
Secondly Brazil is in the toughest group of the world cup alongside a strong Portugal and a very dangerous Cote d’Ivoire, and the complete unknown that is North Korea. I see this group won’t be decided until the last group match, where Brazil takes on Portugal. And to top that whoever comes 2nd in Group G will most likely get to face Spain in the 2nd round.
Finally Brazil don’t have cover for Kaka on the bench. They have to play different style if Kaka has an off day or he cannot play due to injuries. The methodical Dunga will have a plan B but the question is, will it work?

Prediction
Brazil is in the toughest group in the tough lower half of the draw. I won’t be surprised if the fail to advance from Group G, however it is unthinkable.
I believe Brazil could go all the way to the finals if they don’t meet Spain in Round 2. If they end up running to Spain in the 2nd round, I see about 30% chances that they advance.

Prediction (avoiding Spain): Final
Prediction (Spain in 2nd round): 2nd round elimination
Team Bus Slogan: Lotado! O Brasil inteiro está aqui dentro! (The whole of Brazil is in here!)
Rating: 7/10. Imaginative.

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Funny Caricatures of all the world cup teams

These are really funny, some more so than the other.
http://www.marca.com/albumes/2010/05/30/carteles_mundial/index.html

World Cup Preview#2 : Argentina

When Diego Maradona took the job of managing Argentina's national team, there were mixed reactions. Most thought he neither had the experience nor the tactical mind to take a high profile yet underachieving Argentina to a World cup win. But make no mistake, everyone agreed on one thing. With Diego, it will never be boring.

The qualifying campaign was anything but smooth. Argentina made heavy work of beating a weak Peru in the final game and receiving a favor from Uruguay who drew in their final game enabling Argentina to squeeze into the showpiece in South Africa.

Almost 2 years in and trying out close to 100 players in the qualifiers and friendlies, experts and fans alike are scratching their heads on what this Argentina about, the formation, the style etc. If anything the provisional squad announced by Maradona made the matters worse adding more confusion.

Based on what Maradona has done in the past (again, this means jack as far as what he will do in the world cup :)) Argentina will play in a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 at the start.

Maradona announced that Heinze, Samuel, Di Michelis and Ottamendi will be the starting back four, the problem all of these are primarily central defenders. This is a big problem if the fullbacks cannot overlap and support the attacking midfielders. If you have seen Javier Zanetti with Inter the last few seasons, it makes no sense he is not in list of 30.

In the midfield, Juan Veron is the brain and Mascherano does the dirty work. The problem here is Veron is past his prime and is a 45-minute player at best. And there is no real backup for Veron. If Veron has to substituted early into the 2nd half, either Argentina have to change shape or put someone like Javier Pastore who is very different from Veron in his place.

Upfront, Maradona is spoiled for choice. He has Messi, Tevez, Higuain, Milito who have scored close to 120 goals put together season. Messi and Higuain/Milito are primed to start. Again, no clue why he has picked up 36 year old Palermo.

How will Argentina play?

Argentina will employ a 4-4-2 with Messi as the 2nd striker behind Milito or Higuain. Maxi Rodriguez and Angel Di Maria will probably accompany Veron and Mascherano in a classic 2-pivot 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1.

I see two main problems
1. With no true fullbacks, Argentina will lack both width and depth in attack.
2. Quality opponents could mark out Messi and make him come deep into midfield to get the ball taking him out of spaces around the box and between the midfield and the centre forward where he is most dangerous.

As a result, the back four and the midfield will be disjointed from the attacking players. I cant read Maradona's mind (i dont think anyone can) but the plan seems to be keep a clean-sheet at the back and either pass the ball to Messi and ask him to do the rest or lump long balls forward hoping to sneak a goal and ride it out.
If the above fails and Argentina go behind, Maradona will throw in more strikers but there is not much in the list of 30 that shows they can change something dramatically.

How far they will go?
Argentina is in a relatively easy group with Nigeria, South Korea and Greece. The quality upfront with Messi & company should see them through this group and they would run into either Mexico, France or Uruguay in the 2nd round. Again I can see Argentina squeezing through the 2nd round as they dont really run into a heavyweight.

Quarterfinals is the farthest I see them going, and I wont be surprised if they get eliminated earlier.

Note to Argentine Football Association (AFA) : Please go get a real coach. You are doing tremendous disservice to lot of hugely talented players. And this is coming from a die-hard fan of Diego Armando Maradona, the player.

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Spain

World Cup Preview #1 : Spain

Spain has to prove its Euro 2008 victory wasn't a fluke - no easy task. They face a very accomplished Chile, a physically strong Honduras and the dark horse Switzerland in the group stage.

They will retain the core of the Euro 2008 squad and play the trademark ball possession and passing game. Fernando Torres will lead the forward line, with David Villa, who will drift into wide positions often; both supported by David Silva and Andres Iniesta on the wings with Xavi Hernandez in the midfield alongside Xabi Alonso or Marcos Senna. Ramos-Pique-Albiol-Capdevila will start at the back.

The bench will feature the electric winger from Seville, Jesus Navas, the prolific Pedro Rodriguez of Barcelona and the big center forward Fernando Llorente of Bilbao as an option B to help break through defensive walls in the second halves.

Coach Vicente Del Bosque has a potentially debilitating three injured players (Torres, Iniesta and Fabregas) with six weeks to go, who are expected to be fit just in time for the World Cup. Some key players from the Euro 2008, Marcos Senna and Santi Cazorla, are struggling and could miss the world cup. Injuries apart, I believe they have a strong squad and a very good talent pool to choose from.

The biggest positional weakness is the left-back position. First choice Joan Capdevila aged 32 is great going forward but teams can exploit the space behind him when he doesn’t track back. They can also stifle Spain on the left side if he stays back against attacking right wingers/backs. Tactically, counterattacking teams that are comfortable without the ball and opponents with a big physical presence will pose a threat to Spain.
Spain can go all the way, unless they run into Brazil in the second round - which cuts their chances to 50-50.

Spain has announced the 30 probables. No big surprises. The fact that they selected 5 goalkeepers in the list indicates they have few selection worries.

Prediction : Champion, if they dont cross swords with Brasil in the 2nd round

Aupa Villareal

Villareal resumed its 2nd foray into Europe's elite with a 1-0 win over Celtic. Classic Villareal, control the ball, keep a clean sheet and score a goal or two. Along with Manchester United, Villareal will advance from this group in all probability.
Super Villareal :) Super Submarino

A por ellos!!! oooooée

E S P A Ñ A

Vamos Vamos!!!

It all boils down to this. Spain X Germany. España X Alemania! the final.
In less than 24 hours, Spain will step on the field to end a generation of misery, ridicule, 'curse' (maldición) and finally do some justification to the vast talent they had in the past and the present.

44 years since their only Championship.
24 years since the last time they were in a Final.

There is a lot of pressure on this team to wipeout decades of disappointment of a nation who always were up with the best in the world as far as talent players and technical ability is concerned. But too often they cant rise in adversity. They seem to lose against opponents who seemed mentally tougher than themselves. Or too often they get ridden with internal strife in the squad.

Things have been refreshingly different this time around in the Spanish camp. Almost none of the players who featured in those losses in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Players like Torres and Fabregas exceling outside of Spain helped in giving an added dimension to the team. Aragones stuck to his guns by not including popular players who he didnt believe as a part of his setup in Raul and Joaquin.

After a tentative start (eventhough masked by the scoreline 4-1) against Russia, they faced a tough opponent in Sweden. Villa won it for Spain on a last gasp solo run in added time. the largely 2nd team came from behind to beat Greece 2-1 to complete a perfect group record.

And their reward for sweeping group D is a QF clash with dreaded, loathed Italy - the defending world champions. Spain always believed that they play better football than the Italians who are supposed to win through their sheer will to win, physical play and gamesmanship and cheeky tactics. The Italians have a 4 World Cups and a Euro to Spains only Euro.

Italy missing Pirlo, seemed to play for penalties from the get go. They stifled the more enterprising Spanish for all of 120 minutes. Penalties. Spain for once took their penalties with aplomb and riding on the 2 saves of Iker Casillas exorcised 2 ghosts in 1 match.
1. The Italians - The Spainish havent gotten past the Italian in 88 years.
2. QF curse - The Spanish have taken on the dubious tag of QF Bottlers as they havent gotten past that stage in a major cup for the past 20 odd years.

Semifinal against a resurgent Russian team who had beaten the dutch at their own game in a scintillating display of attacking and running football in the QF. Spain never worried about Russian resurgence despite all the hype and the gungho statements that the Russian's have come of age in the span of a few matches. Sadly for the Russians all those who believed in the hype didnt include the Spanish.
The slick spanish passing ran the Russians ragged for the better part of an hour before scoring the 1st and then the 2nd and then the 3rd to put them out of the tourney. In the process they lost David Villa for the final. A big loss. One that cant be filled without changing their tactics. Spain reverted to a 4-5-1 system and will employ them same against the Germans in the final today.

This is it. Spain are ready to end the wait of 44 years today.

There is no point in talking formations and tactics. Spain is playing against itself, its history and all the disappointment of its predecessors. To be fair, this bunch has already broken through the glass ceilings which seemed insurmountable in the past.
As the old saying goes :: Finals are to be won. And none remembers who finished 2nd.

Aupa España
Vamos a ganar!

Favorites

League : La Liga - they are a bit up and down this year but still top to bottom they are still a very good league, Ronaldinho's mess notwithstanding.

Team(s) : Villareal CF. El submarino Amarillo. The Yellow Submarine. Aupa! will finish #2 in the league which means direct entry to the UEFA Champions League group stage next year. Losses at key moments meant they couldnt mount a challenge to Real Madrid who had their share of ups and downs through the season. Players to watch out : Matías Fernandez - Matígol, ' el turco' Nihat.

Chivas Guadalajara. El rebaño sagrado. the best team in México which hires only Mexican players born on Mexican soil. In the play-offs of the Mexican League this season. Arriba Las Chivas!

And of late Getafe! - the reason - see the next post :)

Countries : India (i hope to see them play in a World Cup in my lifetime), Argentina (Maradona is God!), México, and sometimes Spain, Italy.

Players : too many to list.

Style : Good football in general. Lots of ball movement and players moving well without the ball. Pace is good but just running up and down gets boring. Man marking like Greece in Euro 2004 in any way shape or form is a no-no.

Radio or TV? I love radio. Especially live narration in Spanish :). From Argentina to Mexico to Spain. Awesome!